BREAKINGErik Morales vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based predictionBREAKINGErik Morales vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based prediction

Erik Morales vs Islam Makhachev

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM
🇲🇽

Erik Morales

61-9-0
VS
🇷🇺

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0
42%10% Draw48%
Morales
Makhachev
Predicted outcome: Decision

Our stats-based model gives Islam Makhachev a 48% edge over Erik Morales in this matchup. The prediction is driven by age & prime as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a Decision in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Erik Morales wins 87% vs Islam Makhachev at 97%

Morales
10.0
Makhachev
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

0% stoppage rate vs 18%

Morales
0.0
Makhachev
2.1
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 173cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Morales
4.0
Makhachev
6.0
DurabilityWeight: ★★

87% survival rate vs 97%

Morales
9.6
Makhachev
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

50 years old vs 34 years old

Morales
3.0
Makhachev
8.5
ExperienceWeight: ★★

70 bouts vs 29 bouts

Morales
10.0
Makhachev
5.3
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.