BREAKINGJon Jones vs Tom Aspinall — stats-based predictionBREAKINGJon Jones vs Tom Aspinall — stats-based prediction

Jon Jones vs Tom Aspinall

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Jon Jones

28-0-0
VS
🇬🇧

Tom Aspinall

15-2-0
41%10% Draw49%
Jones
Aspinall
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Tom Aspinall a 49% edge over Jon Jones in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Jon Jones wins 100% vs Tom Aspinall at 88%

Jones
10.0
Aspinall
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

39% stoppage rate vs 80%

Jones
4.7
Aspinall
9.6
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 192cm / 196cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Jones
4.2
Aspinall
5.8
DurabilityWeight: ★★

100% survival rate vs 88%

Jones
10.0
Aspinall
9.7
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

39 years old vs 33 years old

Jones
4.3
Aspinall
10.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

28 bouts vs 17 bouts

Jones
10.0
Aspinall
6.9
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.