BREAKINGJustin Gaethje vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based predictionBREAKINGJustin Gaethje vs Islam Makhachev — stats-based prediction

Justin Gaethje vs Islam Makhachev

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
VS
🇷🇺

Islam Makhachev

28-1-0
48%10% Draw42%
Gaethje
Makhachev
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 48% edge over Islam Makhachev in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Islam Makhachev at 97%

Gaethje
10.0
Makhachev
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 18%

Gaethje
8.9
Makhachev
2.1
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje
5.4
Makhachev
4.6
DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 97%

Gaethje
9.3
Makhachev
10.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 34 years old

Gaethje
5.6
Makhachev
8.5
ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 29 bouts

Gaethje
10.0
Makhachev
9.3
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.