BREAKINGJustin Gaethje vs Khabib Nurmagomedov — stats-based predictionBREAKINGJustin Gaethje vs Khabib Nurmagomedov — stats-based prediction

Justin Gaethje vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
VS
🇷🇺

Khabib Nurmagomedov

29-0-0
49%10% Draw41%
Gaethje
Nurmagomedov
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Khabib Nurmagomedov in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Khabib Nurmagomedov at 100%

Gaethje
10.0
Nurmagomedov
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 28%

Gaethje
8.9
Nurmagomedov
3.3
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje
5.4
Nurmagomedov
4.6
DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 100%

Gaethje
9.3
Nurmagomedov
10.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 29 bouts

Gaethje
10.0
Nurmagomedov
9.3
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 38 years old

Gaethje
5.6
Nurmagomedov
5.4
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.