BREAKINGJustin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett — stats-based predictionBREAKINGJustin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett — stats-based prediction

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
VS
🇬🇧

Paddy Pimblett

23-4-0
48%10% Draw42%
Gaethje
Pimblett
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 48% edge over Paddy Pimblett in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Justin Gaethje wins 84% vs Paddy Pimblett at 85%

Gaethje
10.0
Pimblett
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

74% stoppage rate vs 30%

Gaethje
8.9
Pimblett
3.7
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height 180cm / 178cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Gaethje
5.4
Pimblett
4.6
DurabilityWeight: ★★

84% survival rate vs 85%

Gaethje
9.3
Pimblett
9.4
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

37 years old vs 31 years old

Gaethje
5.6
Pimblett
8.0
ExperienceWeight: ★★

32 bouts vs 27 bouts

Gaethje
10.0
Pimblett
8.8
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.