BREAKINGMarlon Vera vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based predictionBREAKINGMarlon Vera vs Justin Gaethje — stats-based prediction

Marlon Vera vs Justin Gaethje

Stats-based fight prediction · Factor analysis · Win probability

PREDICTIONConfidence: MEDIUM

Marlon Vera

23-12-1
VS

Justin Gaethje

27-5-0
41%10% Draw49%
Vera
Gaethje
Predicted outcome: KO/TKO

Our stats-based model gives Justin Gaethje a 49% edge over Marlon Vera in this matchup. The prediction is driven by finishing power as the dominant factor. The most likely outcome is a KO/TKO in what should be a competitive fight.

Factor Analysis

Win RateWeight: ★★★

Marlon Vera wins 64% vs Justin Gaethje at 84%

Vera
7.7
Gaethje
10.0
Finishing PowerWeight: ★★★

35% stoppage rate vs 74%

Vera
4.2
Gaethje
8.9
DurabilityWeight: ★★

67% survival rate vs 84%

Vera
7.3
Gaethje
9.3
Physical AttributesWeight: ★★

Height ?cm / 180cm, Reach ?cm / ?cm

Vera
5.0
Gaethje
5.0
Age & PrimeWeight: ★★

33 years old vs 37 years old

Vera
9.6
Gaethje
5.6
ExperienceWeight: ★★

36 bouts vs 32 bouts

Vera
10.0
Gaethje
9.1
Disclaimer: This prediction is generated algorithmically based on publicly available statistics and should not be used as gambling advice. Fight outcomes depend on many factors that statistics alone cannot capture, including game plans, training camps, and in-ring adjustments. Always gamble responsibly.